GameshowOdds

What 100 spins look like on a 54-segment wheel

A typical session is around 100 spins. This guide shows the counts a fair 54-segment wheel produces, the range you should treat as normal and the surprises that are not surprising.

Updated:

Expected counts in 100 spins

GameshowOddsUpdated:
Counts follow the binomial distribution: mean = 100 x p, standard deviation = square root of 100 x p x (1 - p). The range shown is mean plus or minus one standard deviation, which holds about two sessions in three.
ResultChance per spinExpected countTypical range (one standard deviation)Chance of none in 100
138.89%38.934 to 44below 0.0001%
224.07%24.120 to 28below 0.0001%
512.96%13.010 to 160.0001%
10 or Coin Flip7.41%7.45 to 100.05%
Cash Hunt or Pachinko3.70%3.72 to 62.3%
Crazy Time1.85%1.91 to 315.4%
Any bonus16.67%16.713 to 20below 0.0001%

How the Crazy Time segment behaves

Because it is a 1-in-54 event, the number of Crazy Time results in 100 spins is lumpy. The chance of exactly 0 is 15.4%, exactly 1 is 29.1%, exactly 2 is 27.2%, exactly 3 is 16.8%, exactly 4 is 7.7% and 5 or more is 3.9%. So the most common session shows one or two of them, nearly three sessions in ten show three or more and about one in six shows none. All of those are the same wheel behaving normally.

A quick check you can run yourself

A quick sanity check for any stats log: take the number of spins you counted, multiply by the segment's probability, and compare with what the log shows. If the log is within two standard deviations, it is noise. The table above gives those ranges for 100 spins and the stats guide gives them for 1,000.

Two caveats

Two caveats apply. The ranges assume a fair wheel and independent spins, which is what the developer's rules describe. And a range of one standard deviation covers about two sessions in three, so one session in three will land outside it without anything being wrong.

Dry spells: the chance of waiting

GameshowOddsUpdated:
Chance of n spins with no result = (1 - p)^n. For Crazy Time p = 1/54; for any bonus p = 9/54.
Spins in a row withoutCrazy TimeAny bonus
1083.0%16.2%
2068.8%2.6%
5436.4%below 0.01%
10015.4%below 0.0001%
2002.4%negligible

What to take from it

First, a session of 100 spins is short: the number of times a mid-frequency result appears can vary by plus or minus 3 and a rare one can be missing altogether. Second, variation in the counts is not a sign of an unfair wheel. Third, none of the above changes the price. At the published RTP range of 94.41% to 96.08%, 100 spins at 1 unit cost an expected 3.92 to 5.59 units, and the result for a given session could be much better or much worse.

The only way the counts matter is for expectation-setting. If a bonus round is what you play for, expect about one spin in six to start one and plan for dry spells of 10 spins (a 16% chance at any point). You will not need a tracker to see that.

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100 spins: questions

How many bonus rounds should I expect in 100 Crazy Time spins?

About 16.7, usually between 13 and 20.

Is going 100 spins without Crazy Time unusual?

It happens in 15.4% of sessions of that length, about one in six.

Does a long drought make the result due?

No. The next spin keeps its 1-in-54 chance.

What distribution is this?

Binomial: n independent trials with fixed success chance p.

Do other wheels work the same?

Yes, with their own segment counts. Funky Time uses 64 segments, so its probabilities are different.

Good to know. GameshowOdds is an independent maths site that earns a commission when readers sign up at partner casinos. Our partner RooRoll is an offshore casino: we have not verified a licence from a Canadian provincial regulator or an Irish one, so assume none. Offshore casinos sit outside local consumer protection and dispute processes. Gambling is 18+ (19+ in most Canadian provinces). Help is on our responsible gambling page.