GameshowOdds

Crazy Time stats: what history can and cannot tell you

Stats pages and trackers list the last few thousand Crazy Time spins. This guide shows what those lists should look like if the wheel is fair, so you can read them without being fooled by noise.

Updated:

What a stats page actually is

A tracker is a log. It records each spin's result and counts them. That is useful as a reference: it tells you the wheel is landing on 1 about 39% of the time, in line with 21 segments out of 54. It is not a forecast. Because each spin is independent, the table of past results has no influence on the next one, whether it covers 50 spins or 50,000.

We do not run a tracker here. It would need a live data feed, and it would not change the maths on this page. What we can do is give you the benchmark a log should be compared with.

Expected counts in 1,000 spins, with the normal range

GameshowOddsUpdated:
Mean = 1,000 x count / 54. Standard deviation = square root of n x p x (1 - p). Normal range = mean plus or minus two standard deviations.
ResultExpectedTypical swing (1 standard deviation)Normal range (about 95% of runs)
1388.915.4358 to 420
2240.713.5214 to 268
5129.610.6108 to 151
1074.18.358 to 91
Coin Flip74.18.358 to 91
Cash Hunt37.06.025 to 49
Pachinko37.06.025 to 49
Crazy Time18.54.310 to 27
Any bonus166.711.8143 to 190

How to read a log with this table

Suppose a stats page shows 1,000 spins with 30 Cash Hunts. The expectation is 37 with a range of 25 to 49, so 30 is ordinary: nothing is "cold". Suppose it shows 9 Crazy Time results where 18.5 are expected. That is more than two standard deviations low, which happens about 2.5% of the time for one result. With eight segments to watch, at least one of them sitting at that edge by chance is common, roughly one log in three. Looking at many segments and highlighting the odd one is the classic way noise looks like a pattern.

If a log is far outside the range for several segments at once, over thousands of spins, then something about the log deserves a closer look, such as a short sample or a mix of different tables. That is a statistical check on the data, not a bet.

Streaks, droughts and "due" results

The chance of no Crazy Time segment in n spins is (53/54)^n. After 54 spins it is 36.4%, after 100 spins 15.4%, after 200 spins 2.4% and after 300 spins 0.4%. The median wait is 37 spins and the mean 54, so a gap of 100 spins is uncommon, not impossible. A player who has waited 100 spins has the same 1-in-54 chance on spin 101 as a player starting fresh.

That is the gambler's fallacy in numbers: the cumulative chance of an event grows with each spin, but the chance on the next spin does not.

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Crazy Time stats: questions

Can Crazy Time stats predict the next spin?

No. Each spin is independent, so past results do not change the next one.

What are hot and cold numbers?

Random clusters. Over any short window some segments appear more or less often than average, and that is expected.

How many spins do I need before stats are meaningful?

Thousands. At 1,000 spins the 1 segment still swings by about 15 either way.

Why do you not offer a live tracker?

It would only list past spins, which carry no information about the next one.

What is the bonus frequency in Crazy Time?

9 of 54 segments, 16.67%, or about 1 spin in 6, matching the figure on Evolution's game page.

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