Lightning Roulette odds: what the multipliers must pay for

The twist, in numbers

Classic single-zero roulette has 37 pockets. A straight-up bet wins with probability 1/37, 2.70%, and pays 35 to 1, so it returns 36/37 = 97.30% of the stake in the long run. The house keeps 1/37, 2.70%. Lightning Roulette keeps the wheel, the table and the bet types, but Evolution's game page states that non-multiplied straight-up bets pay 29 to 1, and that between one and five Lucky Numbers are struck by lightning each round and paid 50x to 500x. Source: Evolution's Lightning Roulette page.

What the 16-point gap tells you

Cutting the payout from 35 to 29 removes 6 of every 37 units from straight-up winners. That is 16.2% of the stake over the long run. Lightning numbers, which pay 50x to 500x, must hand most of it back to reach a reported 97.10%. In other words, about 16 of every 100 units staked on straight-up numbers is returned only through the rare multiplied hit.

Compare the two profiles. In classic roulette a straight-up win is a steady, if rare, 35 to 1. In Lightning a straight-up win is usually a smaller 29 to 1 and occasionally a very large multiple. The average is almost the same, 97.10% against 97.30%, but the spread is wider: the game trades consistency for a bigger top prize. Casino.org's guide lists the straight-up RTP at 97.10% and other bets at 97.30% (source).

Practical reading

The outside bets, red or black, odd or even, columns and dozens, are not multiplied and keep the standard European roulette return of 97.30%. If the goal is the lowest cost per spin, those bets are the cheapest on the table. Straight-up bets are where the Lightning mechanic lives, so the extra volatility is optional.

The chance that your number is struck by lightning in a given round depends on how many numbers are chosen that round, from one to five, so it varies between 2.7% and 13.5% (5/37). The multiplier size is random. Nothing about the previous round changes either.